On July 11, 2010, three coordinated attacks tore through the Ugandan capital of Kampala, striking World Cup viewing parties, and killing at least 76 people. Suspicion of responsibility for the attacks immediately fell upon the Somali-based Shabaab al-Mujahideen (Shabaab). The group confirmed their responsibility the next day, at a press conference in Mogadishu. Several hours later, the Shabaab reiterated their claim by posting excerpts on their official website from the 10 minute, 10 second Somali language statement given by their spokesman, Sheikh Ali Muhammad Raghe (AKA Dheere). The statement clearly asserts Shabaab responsibility for the attack and announces that the Shabab's attack intentionally targeted Ugandan civilians in retribution for Uganda's military presence in Somalia:
| “Early last night, troops from the Shabaab al-Mujahideen Movement carried out coordinated attacks at some locations in the capital city of Uganda, Kampala, where they have inflicted huge damage to a group of people consisting of Ugandans and other nationalities including Americans and Ethiopians. These attacks, which were coordinated, have killed close to 100 people - mostly Ugandans - who were having fun at those locations. This is the best response to the activities of the Ugandan troops in Mogadishu.” | ||
Although the Kampala bombing represents the first major al-Qaeda style attack that the Shabaab took responsibility for committing outside of Somalia, the group's history of rhetoric clearly demonstrates intent to carry out international attacks. Sunday's bombings in Kampala were the culmination of an escalating series of threats issued by the Shabaab against Burundi, Ethiopia, and Uganda. Video messages and communiqués since at least early 2008 identify the three countries as targets for the Shabaab.
The Shabaab have long distributed messages threatening Uganda for the country's role in the African Union's peacekeeping mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Uganda currently deploys half of the troops assigned to the mission and was the first country to contribute troops when the mission began in 2007. This has made their forces frequent targets of Shabaab operations within Somalia, such as an April 28, 2010 suicide bombing against an AMISOM base in Mogadishu, carried out in revenge for slain Islamic State of Iraq leaders Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and Abu Hamza al-Muhajir.
Burundian forces based in Somalia are also targeted by the Shabaab in retaliation for fielding troops with AMISOM, while Ethiopia is presented as the architect of a Christian attempt to destroy Somalia's Islamic heritage. In addition to targeting Burundi and Ugandan troops in Somalia, and militias allegedly supported by Ethiopia, the Shabaab have periodically threatened attacks against civilians from each of the three countries in retaliation for alleged AMISOM aggression against Somali civilians. These threats have become increasingly frequent, issued almost weekly in the immediate run-up to the World Cup Final.
Just two weeks before the attacks, leaders of the Shabaab issued several warnings against Uganda through a number
of mediums. Messages announcing the Shabaab's intent to target Uganda were distributed online through videos, recorded messages, and printed statements as well as via public announcements at Shabaab rallies. In addition to utilizing a number of different means of communication, the Shabaab's warnings were distributed in both English and Somali. On June 27, 2010 an English-language video released by al-Kata’ib, the media arm of the Shabaab, attacked the African Union's presence in Somalia and called on Uganda and Burundi to cease sending troops to Somalia. The video, distributed both to the Shabaab's official website and jihadist forums, threatened that Burundian and Ugandan troops in Somalia are subject to ever greater casualties and questioned the rationale of both nations for sending their sons to die in an internal Somali conflict:
| “Thus, the question remains to be answered by the people of Uganda and Burundi, who are sending their sons to die miserably in Mogadishu, for what cause is the blood of your sons being shed on a daily basis here in Mogadishu? Wouldn’t it have been far more worthwhile for your son s to die protecting the people from the raids of Joseph Kony and his army? “And if the sensible among the Ugandan and Burundi public cannot restrain them, then prepare to receive the remains of your sons in coffins. The choice is in your hands.” |
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The Shabaab reiterated their threats against Ugandan and Burundian civilians in a series of messages distributed days before the attacks. On July 4, 2010, about a week before the attacks, Shabaab leader Abu Zubair issued a warning to the people Uganda in a 9-minute Somali-language audio. The audio asserted that alleged Ugandan “massacre[s]” invited retaliation against Ugandans:
| “My message to the people of Uganda and Burundi is that you will be the targets of retaliation for the massacre of women, children and elderly Somalis in Mogadishu by your forces" | ||
In another message calling for attacks against Ugandan and Burundi targets outside of Somalia, prominent group member Abu Mansur called for jihadists around the world to target diplomatic missions of Uganda and Burundi. The message, aimed at jihadist groups in Asia and the Caucasus, was distributed on July 8, 2010 during a public rally in Mogadishu:
| "We urge our brothers from Chechnya, Pakistan, Afghanistan and from anywhere around the world to attack the diplomatic missions of Uganda and Burundi" | ||
The Shabaab's view that Burundian and Ugandan civilians are legitimate targets was in evidence after the Shabaab broke from the Islamic Courts Union as an independent group in 2006. In a written statement issued on January 3, 2008 and distributed to jihadist forums by the Global Islamic Media Front, the group announced that the capitals of Burundi, Ethiopia, and Uganda would be targeted if they did not withdrawal from involvement in Somalia. The statement, titled “You Will be Condemned as You Condemn Others”, invoked Ayman al-Zawahiri's concept of the “correct equation” or reciprocity in both violence and peace. Justifying their intent to target civilians in each of the three countries named, the Shabaab declared:
| “Whoever displaced the Muslim people, it is our right to displace his people. We will do it, Allah willing. Those who killed our women, then we will kill his women; those who assaulted our honor, we respond to him with what suits him; those who widowed our mothers and made our children orphans, we will make their mothers widowed and increase their orphans because everyone is punished according to his aggression. Let him increase it, if he wishes, or decrease it.” | ||
Threatening the three countries with attacks in their capitals if the African Union continues to carry out operations against the Shabaab, the message continued:
| “If Mogadishu, the capital of the Muslim Somalia, knows the heavy bombing and destruction by the alliance of Ethiopia, Uganda, and Burundi, then Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, Kampala, the capital of Uganda, and Bujumbura, the capital of Burundi, will taste the same bitterness that Mogadishu tasted because this is the balance of justice.” | ||
After establishing their view that attacks against civilians in Burundi and Uganda are legitimate targets, the January 3, 2008 message chastised both countries for participating in what the Shabaab construed as a duplicitous peacekeeping mission. Placing responsibility on Ethiopia for leading the two other countries into a plot to establish a “Christian empire” in Somalia, the message claimed:
| “In particular, we address this message to Burundi and Uganda, in addition to those who follow them including anyone who tries to enter the Muslim land under the cover of what is called peace-keeping forces and other names... You fell into the nets of the devils and the conspiracies of America and Ethiopia. The goal of bringing your forces is to destroy the peace and shake in order to prevent the establishment of the Islamic State in Somalia. After that comes the role of your masters in Ethiopia executing the long-range plans to control the country, steal its resources and displace the Muslim inhabitants. It has tried in vain to achieve the dream which it dreamt a long time, which is to establish a Christian empire in the land of the Muslim Somalia.” | ||
In conclusion, the Shabaab's intention to carry out attacks against civilians in Uganda has been clear in messages and statements issued by the group. With the July 11, 2010 attack in Kampala, the Shabaab's capabilities reached the point at which they are able to extend beyond the borders of Somalia. Whether the Kampala attacks are the only international attack that the Shabaab has the ability to carry out is unknown. However, unsettlingly, the Shabaab strongly indicated an intent to continue to perpetuate international attacks. The June 12, 2010 statement of responsibility clearly threatens that the Shabaab expects to march onwards to Burundi:
| “In sending a message to the public in Burundi, he told them that they are weaker than the Ugandans, and for that reason they have to learn their lessons from what happened in Kampala. If they do not do that, he said, the troops of the Shabaab al-Mujahideen cannot be stopped anywhere, and that the Ugandans will get the message soon in their capital city.” |