After being severely weakened by the Awakening Councils and the US troop surge, the Islamic State of Iraq has appeared to reemerge, after lying low for some time. In recent weeks, the ISI has raised its profile with new claims for attacks, as well as a string of releases of propaganda and speeches by the group's leaders. In an atmosphere where the Awakening Councils appear to be under strain and other Iraqi insurgent groups have publicly reached out to the ISI, al-Qaeda's franchise in Iraq might have an opportunity to reconstitute itself.
The great expectations of the Awakening Councils in the January Provincial elections, with many of the councils' leaders participating in an election for the first time since the start of the war in 2003, fell short. Though many were hoping to achieve a truly equal society in Iraq between Sunnis and Shi'a, with a responsive government attentive to both groups' problems, the results appear to have been disappointing. The elections themselves were largely devoid of violence, but afterwards, there were numerous claims of voting fraud and grievances emerging from the Sunnis in Anbar, who continue to view Iraq's Shi'a-dominated central government as being biased against them.
Another element contributing to the difficulties facing the Awakening Councils is that many of the salaries paid to the nearly 100,000 armed members of the councils are in arrears. And though Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki promised all of them jobs in the Iraqi government, many are rapidly realizing that this pledge will remain unfulfilled for the vast majority. Furthermore, the Iraqi government's recent arrests of prominent leaders of certain Awakening Councils has reinforced the notion that the Sunnis will not be enfranchised in Iraq's political system.
In this uncertain environment for Sunnis in Iraq, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi released a speech to online jihadist forums on March 17, 2009, offering again, as he has in the past, an olive branch to insurgent groups, seeking to put their past differences behind them. Humbly and with conciliation, al-Baghdadi called for the unity of Sunnis in Iraq, proclaiming, “We extend a hand of forgiveness and help every Muslim in Iraq and elsewhere, even if we did some wrong...We hope to put all problems of the past behind our backs. We do not require from this rank or this allegiance anything but to be a good Muslim who seeks to apply the Shari'ah of Allah.”
Whereas such pleas for unity from the Islamic State of Iraq formerly fell on deaf ears, the realities of Iraq today may have helped engender the positive response al-Baghdadi received from several insurgent groups that were at best non-confrontational and at worst engaged in direct combat with the Islamic State of Iraq. Among the most prominent replies to al-Baghdadi's call was from the Islamic Front for the Iraqi Resistance [JAMI], an umbrella organization that was formed in 2004 by several small Sunni insurgency groups.
In an interview given to London-based satellite news channel Al-Hiwar on April 11, 2009, Abdullah al-Hafez, the leader of the Islamic Front who had been critical of al-Qaeda's killing of rival Sunnis, was surprisingly amenable to al-Baghdadi's peace overtures. In a one-hour interview, marking the 5-year anniversary of the Iraq war, al-Hafez admitted “that the Awakenings project is finished, and that this project has had its time pass; now, the resistance must be supported in the coming stage.” He then affirmed al-Baghdadi's call for unity.
After being asked for his reaction to al-Baghdadi's call, Hafez surprisingly indicated that JAMI would be willing to work with Baghdad and his group so long as the ISI would purge al-Qaeda's ranks of those who would wantonly kill Sunnis. Al-Hafez stated, “then, we are with these calls for the unification of the ranks of the mujahideen.” He continued, “we welcome this, and this is our call from the beginning. Yes, we respect and support all who strike the invader and all who fight to expel the invader from our country.”
The reaction of Hafez, who represents an Iraqi nationalist group that has for years denounced al-Qaeda's presence in Iraq, should not be dismissed, as it could be an indicator of a shift in the strategy of Sunni insurgent groups in Iraq. Given the Sunnis' disappointment with the Iraqi government, the alleged fraud claimed by some in the aftermath of the elections, and the government crackdown on some members of the Awakening Councils, Sunni insurgents might look to the ISI for support.
Perhaps even more disturbing is that JAMI is not alone in looking to al-Qaeda for assistance. Another insurgent faction in Iraq, Al-Mustafa Army, also answered al-Baghdadi's call for unity. Abu Abdullah al-Ansari, the group's leader, issued an audio message on April 11 lamenting the internecine fighting amongst the jihadist groups, and expressing solidarity with the Islamic State of Iraq. Al-Ansari stated, “The call of the brother, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, is the beginning of an abundance of good. We ask Allah the Almighty to complete it. If we are not able to unite, let us help one another in our work, and let it be the beginning of unity.”
In addition, Al-Ansari sent a specific message to the Awakening Councils, warning, “We address the Awakenings that supported the occupation and stood against their brothers as a result of specific circumstances. We say to them: here the government that you supported turned against you and detained and killed your leaders. Your role is finished.”
Yet another nationalist insurgent group also responded favorably to al-Baghdadi's appeal of unity. The Shariah Committee of Ansar al-Sunnah, which had previously been at odds with the ISI and its allies, issued a statement on April 4 to its website suggesting that the group was amenable to al-Baghdadi's call. The leader of the group, Abdul Wahhab bin Muhammad al-Sultan, confirmed in the message, “We and the mujahideen were very pleased by the message of the brother, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi...in which he called for unity as a means to abandon division.” Al-Sultan continued, “The result of the message from our brother, al-Baghdadi, is felt in the hearts of the mujahideen in general, and they started to respond to this blessed call.”
While these groups and likely others have now shifted their strategy in considering their relationship to al-Qaeda's affiliated organizations in Iraq, we should not expect all the Sunni insurgent factions in Iraq to make peace with each other suddenly and unite under the banner of al-Qaeda. However, the positive reception to al-Baghdadi's call, which only a year ago would have been mocked and scorned by many insurgents, is troubling and perhaps reflects the fact that some Sunnis, especially those affiliated with the Awakening Councils, are unhappy with the current order of the regime. Having sacrificed their lives fighting al-Qaeda on behalf of all Iraqis, including the Shi'a, some now believe they are being treated as second-class citizens. Skeptical of their future in Iraq, the rhetoric of al-Qaeda sounds much less hollow. Al-Qaeda may see an opportunity to convince the Sunnis that the ISI, not Iraq's perceived Shi'a-dominated government, is looking out for the interests of Sunnis.