Katz in Brief: SITE’s Director on AQAP’s Leadership Death, Potential Shifts Under Successor
By Rita Katz | Published 03.15.2024
Khalid bin Umar Batarfi (left) and Sa'd bin 'Atef al-Awlaki (right)
The following is the latest in a series of briefings from Rita Katz, Executive Director of the SITE Intelligence Group. The series draws on SITE research to give flash commentary, explainers, and analyses on matters spanning jihadists to the far right.
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) announced the death of leader Khalid bin Umar Batarfi—and the appointment of his successor, Sa'd bin 'Atef al-Awlaki—in a 15 minute video released on March 10. The announcement begs several questions not just regarding Batarfi’s death, but also how Awlaki will lead the affiliate under the gaze of new al-Qaeda chief, Saif al-Adel.
Assessing Batarfi's Passing
Batarfi's death was announced by al-Qaeda veteran Ibrahim al-Qosi (AKA Abu Khubayb al-Sudani), who gave little to no detail of how he died. What Qosi did say of his death was markedly vague: “Allah took his soul while he patiently sought his reward and stood firm, immigrated, garrisoned, and waged jihad for His sake.”
Nonethless, it is clear Batarfi wasn’t killed in an airstrike or assassination. Had such an incident occurred, it would be a difficult secret to keep, and AQAP would have surely capitalized on it immediately to praise Batarfi as a martyr. Furthermore, the video itself shows Batarfi’s face intact with no visible damage. Qosi even cited Qur’anic verses that a martyr is not necessarily one who is killed in battle, but anyone who goes out for jihad.
These factors considered, it is more likely Batarfi died of some type of illness or condition.
Batarfi was last shown in an October 29, 2023 AQAP video, in which he answered several questions on Hamas’ then-recent attack against Israel. He also encouraged attacks against Israel and the West, exclaiming, “Draw closer to Allah by killing them. Such attacks and those of 9/11 act as deterrents.”
The New Leader’s Pedigree
Awlaki, a Yemeni and senior member of AQAP’s Shura Council, becomes the fifth leader to publicly lead the affiliate after working for years as its second-in-command in the country. He was among those in Bin Laden’s company in Afghanistan before returning to Yemen after 9/11 and is on the American government’s Most Wanted list, which offers up to six million dollars for information leading to him.
Also known as “Abu Al-Laith,” Awlaki has been an official with the group since at least as early as 2015. AQAP released an audio message from Awlaki in September of that year, identifying him as “Commander Sa’ad bin ‘Atef al-Awlaki.” An AQAP-linked newspaper issue from April of the following year likewise called him a “commander” and “one of the leaders” of AQAP.
AQAP first showed him on video in a February 2023 production by its Al-Malahem Media Foundation.
Potential Strategy Shifts under Awlaki
The most critical question about Awlaki at this point is if, or to what extent, he will fall in line with Adel. Nowhere will such shifts or lack thereof be as immediately apparent as with the Houthis, which are backed by Iran, the same country in which Adel resides.
Under the leadership of Batarfi, an Adel loyalist, AQAP made the drastic strategy shift to abandon fights against the Houthis, for years its main rival in Yemen. As of today, AQAP hasn’t claimed an attack against Houthis since July 2022. It’s hard to overstate the gravity of this change given that from 2015-2020, the majority of AQAP’s attacks were against Houthis, with its fewer remaining ones focused on its rivalry with local fighters linked to ISIS.
Awlaki, on the other hand, may very well resume fighting against the Houthis while reasserting much of AQAP’s operational autonomy from al-Qaeda Central. Such a scenario would surely enrage Adel, reigniting the same behind-the-scenes rifts between Adel, his loyalists, and those aligned with his predecessor, Ayman al-Zawahiri.
In his 2015 audio message, Awlaki signaled support for Sunnis’ fights against “the Rawafidh [Shi’ite] Houthis.” However, even in his February 2023 video address—released roughly half a year since AQAP had claimed its last attack on Houthis—he still signaled continued enmity against them, albeit subtly. Awlaki called on Sunni tribesmen in Yemen to resist United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces in the country, a message fitting with the larger body of AQAP’s media in recent years since its shift away from Houthi hostilities. Yet he also singled out Houthis twice via mentions of “Iran.”
We urge ourselves and our brothers from the tribes of Ahl al-Sunnah in Yemen in general, and Abyan and Shabwa in particular, to coalesce in jihad against all who attack our religion and our world from among the puppets of America and their helpers, or Iran and its henchmen in our country.
He closed by exclaiming, “O Allah, fight America and its helpers and fight Iran and those who support it.”
Do Awlaki’s past words preview soon-to-be-renewed hostilities against the Houthis? Or will Adel’s influence be harder to resist in 2024, especially as the Houthis’ Red Sea vessel attacks have boosted their profile as perceived protectors of Gazans?
Regardless of Awlaki’s future strategy, AQAP's calls to attack America, Israel, and the West—which have populated its media since October 7—will no doubt continue.
Rita Katz
Executive Director & Founder
Rita Katz is the Executive Director and founder of the SITE Intelligence Group, the world’s leading non-governmental counterterrorism organization specializing in tracking and analyzing online activity of the global extremist community. She has authored two acclaimed books on terrorism: Saints and Soldiers (Columbia University Press, 2022) and Terrorist Hunter (Harper Collins, 2003)
