Al-Qaeda and Iraqi insurgents marked the five year anniversary of the Iraq war with a flurry of propaganda. Reactions by these groups also addressed US President George W. Bush declaring that as of March 24, 2008, 4000 US soldiers were killed in Iraq. Although this figure is viewed as a fabrication by the insurgents, who claim the true number to be much higher, it emboldened the mujahideen and stepped up their rhetoric declaring imminent victory. In the years following the launch of major combat operations in Iraq on March 20, 2003, Iraqi insurgents continue to tout that their victory is made possible through jihad and anticipate that US-led coalition forces will soon withdraw. Audio messages from al-Qaeda leaders and communiqués from insurgent media departments each share this vision, highlighting their imminent victory in their anniversary statements. However, as the war enters its sixth year, these statements belie the fractured state of the Iraqi insurgency, and the increasing difficulties faced by al-Qaeda on the ground.
Speeches from al-Qaeda and its front group in Iraq, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), on the occasion of the passing of the fifth year of the war, point to the US as defeated and resorting to Sunni militias in Awakening councils to buoy the “Crusader” project. Al-Qaeda also focuses on Iraq as a step towards Jerusalem, which is a point increasingly stressed in its propaganda in the past months. Ayman al-Zawahiri, second-in-command of al-Qaeda, speaks in regard to an alleged American defeat in a speech entitled, “Five Years of the Invasion of Iraq and Decades of Injustice by the Tyrants.” He finds that words and actions by Bush and General David Petraeus only delay the inevitable US withdrawal, leaving such a decision for the next president. Likewise, Abu Omar al-Baghdad, head of ISI, in a speech entitled, “The Solid Edifice”, claims that the US reaped only humiliation in Iraq, and faces at home an “exceptional state” of economic collapse.
Abu Omar’s speech dovetails with an ISI statement for the fifth anniversary, which elaborates on US failures. ISI finds that large casualties, economic decline, political crisis, psychological suffering of the American soldier, and ineffectiveness of the preemptive strike mentality, are evidence of increasing US defeat. Aside from these allegations, ISI also strikes at Sunni Awakening councils, and Sunni nationalist insurgent groups it finds have deviated from jihad, in particular the Islamic Army in Iraq, Mujahideen Army and Hamas-Iraq. The deviation comes from these groups acting in opposition to al-Qaeda, making Iraq a regional issue with a “moderate Islamic façade”, rather than an Islamic issue concerning all Muslims.
Sunni Awakening councils and nationalist insurgents, in conjunction with Iraqi and American military forces, threaten al-Qaeda’s foothold in Iraq. Indeed, jihadists demonstrate continuous concern over and hatred for Sunni Awakening Councils, particularly in areas such as Anbar province where the Councils are most formidable. This attests to the success of these campaigns – campaigns which have effectively turned Sunni insurgents formerly aligned with al-Qaeda against the group. Despite these setbacks, ISI continues to call for unity, arguing that the cohesion of the mujahideen is essential to the success of the jihad. Some insurgent groups, such as the Islamic Army and al-Mustafa Army, claim ISI threatened their members and financial supporters for demonstrating an unwillingness to close ranks and adhering to a different view of Islam. The speech of Abu Omar, which includes a call for a committee to mediate between mujahideen and Sunni tribal members, is a step towards settling these differences and achieving unity.
Rhetoric from insurgent leaders, both al-Qaeda and nationalist, emphasizes that as the enemy is working in collusion against the mujahideen, so must the mujahideen fight as one solid group. This argument is touched upon by Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, head of al-Qaeda in Iraq, in his speech for the fifth anniversary of the war, “The Paths to Victory”. Observing conflicts that deter from success, Abu Hamza uses religious text to show that victory is rooted in unity and mutual respect between soldier and commander. To demonstrate mujahideen acting together, Abu Hamza points to the figure of 4000 US deaths in the war in Iraq and calls for a new campaign, the “Attack of Righteousness”. The campaign overtly calls for the mujahideen to each kill an American soldier or Sunni government or militia element. However, the campaign allows the mujahideen to head down a new path of unity, utilizing the instruction given in the speech to achieve victory.
Sunni nationalist groups in Iraq also marked the fifth anniversary of the war with their own propaganda. The Islamic Army in Iraq (IAI) issued in Arabic and English two statements: one from its unnamed emir, “The War of Trillions and the Paper Tiger”, and another challenging the figure of 4000 US deaths as too low. IAI, like the ISI, points to American economic foes as evidence of its failure, in addition to mass res¬ignations by members of the Bush Administration and continued lies about motivations for the war. The theme of deceit is common amongst this propaganda, with IAI and other groups arguing that Bush covers his grand failure with numbers of casualties lower than the actual count . IAI claims that the real number of US deaths is closer to 40,000, but this figure was suppressed by the foreign media due to US pressure.
Other nationalist groups, including the Jihad and Change Front (JCF), Sa’ad bin Abi Waqqas Army and Mujahideen Army in Iraq, each claim that victory is imminent. JCF is a political umbrella for eight insurgent groups including the Twentieth Revolution Brigades and al-Rashideen Army. It comments that despite the treachery of the Awakening coun¬cils and money spent in the war, the enemy project in Iraq will undoubtedly fail. JCF also claims that the occupier will only leave by force, rather than through negotiations and treaties. This argument is shared by Sa’ad bin Abi Waqqas Army and Mujahideen Army in Iraq, who issued a joint statement for the fifth anniversary of the war.
This propaganda from al-Qaeda and the Iraqi insurgents is primarily geared towards its jihadist supporters, using their claims of a near victory as a means to boost morale and garner financial and material backing. The groups also capitalize on negativity surrounding the war in Iraq existing in Western countries, portraying to this audience that five years of war will extend to ten years or greater, with no real US success. However, despite the insurgents’ claiming that victory is im minent, those participating in the insurgency have also failed to achieve many of their most important objectives, such as establishing an Islamic Caliphate, as in the case of al-Qaeda, or political change and US withdrawal. The insurgent rhetoric of the coming of an inexorable victory against the US has per¬petuated in each subsequent year of the war, with new leaders continuing to make such claims in the place of other leaders who have been killed, as well as groups that have lost their power and significance in the Iraqi arena. Though we can expect that insurgent leaders and groups will continue to face death and hardship as they combat US troops, the sixth year of the war in Iraq will no doubvt have these same insurgents predicting the fall of the US in Iraq.